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TERI Information Digest on Energy and Environment
Year : 2004, Volume : 3, Issue : 4
First page : ( 503) Last page : ( 504)
Print ISSN : 0972-6721.

Climate change: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability

 


[2605]An approach to utilize climate change impact studies in national assessments
Aaheim A and Schjolden A. 2004This paper proposes methods to assess the socio-economic impacts of climate change within the framework of national accounting and macro economic models. The purpose of this paper is to suggest an approach whereby results from various micro level studies of impacts of climate change can be compiled and constitute a macro level assessment of implications of climate change for an entire country or region. The methods are illustrated with examples. The framework of national accounting serves several important purposes in the assessment of the national impacts of climate change. First, an accounting system requires that assumptions and output from independent sector studies of impacts be standardized and made comparable. Second, it serves as a checkpoint for the availability and quality of information about impacts of climate change. Third, it provides a starting point for more extensive macro economic analysis of impacts. (1 figure, 7 tables, 21 references)
Global Environmental Change 14(2): 147–160
CICERO, University of Oslo, PO Box 1129 Blindern, Oslo 0318, Norway <asbjorn.aaheim@cicero.uio.no>

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[2606]Modelling greenhouse gas energy technology responses to climate change
Edmonds JA, Clarke J, Dooley J, Kim SH, Smith SJ. 2004Models of the global energy system can help shed light on the competition and complementarities among technologies and energy systems, both in presence and absence of actions to affect the concentration of GHGs (greenhouse gases). This paper explores the role of modelling in the analysis of technology deployment in addressing climate change. It examines the competition among technologies in a variety of markets, and explores conditions under which new markets such as for hydrogen and carbon disposal, or modern commercial biomass, could emerge. Carbon capture and disposal technologies are shown to have the potential to play a central role in controlling the cost of stabilizing the concentration of GHGs, the goal of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. (4 figures, 1 table, 10 references)
Energy 29(9–10): 1529–1536
Joint Global Change Research Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 8400 Baltimore Avenue, College Park Manyland 20740, USA <jae@pnl.gov>

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[2607]Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks
Wu L and Wang B. 2004A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on TC (tropical cyclone) tracks in the WNP (western North Pacific) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of the TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows and in formation locations. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of the TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of the TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of the TC motion, composed of large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP-NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis for the current climate state. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best-track data by removing the steering flow. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies, in terms of its direction and magnitude. The approach is applied to assessing the potential impacts of global warming on the TC tracks in the WNP. The possible changes in the large-scale steering flows are taken from the output wind fields of two GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) global warming experiments, and possible changes in the TC formation locations are considered by shifting the formation locations as a whole. The GFDL experiments suggested that changes in the future large-scale steering flows are dominated by the easterly anomalies in the tropics and westerly anomalies in the midlatitudes with the enhanced northward component during the period of 2030–59. Based on the assessments using two different ways to reduce climate model biases, the prevailing TC tracks shift slightly south-westwards during the period of 2000–29, but north-eastwards during the period of 2030–59. More TCs will take a recurving track and move north-eastwards during the period of 2030–59. The El Niño-like climate change predicted in many climate models can significantly enhance the track changes if the TC formation locations in the WNP shift eastwards as a whole. (12 figures, 3 tables, 35 references)
Journal of Climate 17(8): 1686–1698
Goddard Earth and Technology Center University of Maryland, Baltimore County Baltimore, and Laboratory for Atmospheres NASA Goddard Space Center Greenbelt, Maryland <liguang@agnes.gsfc.nasa.gov>

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