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TERI Information Digest on Energy and Environment
Year : 2002, Volume : 1, Issue : 1
First page : ( 164) Last page : ( 168)
Print ISSN : 0972-6721.

Climate change: Energy issues and policies

 


[212]US climate policy: evolution and future prospects
Agrawala S and Andresen S. 2001Climate change is a problem which US science has significantly helped to bring to the world's attention. It now requires initiatives in US domestic policy for even the first steps towards any realistic global resolution of this problem. This paper addresses three questions (1) How has US climate policy evolved since climate change became an international political concern in the late 1980s? (2) What is the relative significance of various factors, both domestic and international, in shaping this evolution? (3) What are some likely future scenarios for the climate regime and the role of the US under the new Bush (Jr.) administration? This analysis suggests that the US has generally played a cautious, even blocking role on the international arena, although the period between 1992 and 1997 witnessed a rather uneven march towards progressivism, culminating in the US agreeing to a 7% cut in its greenhouse emissions by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. US policy during the Bush (Sr.) and Clinton administrations was primarily shaped by powerful ideologues, while a second critical determinant was the constitutional separation of powers between the executive and legislature. Scientific assessments and international negotiations meanwhile have given climate change unusual stamina on the domestic agenda, while the preferred set of policy responses has been constrained by a national culture that gives primacy to the market over the state. Looking into the future, the recent one-two punch delivered by President George W. Bush in reversing his pledge to regulate carbon dioxide followed by a rejection of US commitments under the Kyoto Protocol renders any expectation of measures to reduce domestic emissions, unrealistic, and is likely to cripple the treaty in its present form. The possibility of an alternate to the Kyoto Protocol also appears very remote at this time. However, while official action is unlikely, it is possible that the growth of US greenhouse emissions might be reduced in the near future due to offsetting factors such as a widely expected economic slowdown.
(34 references)
Energy and Environment12(2–3):117–137
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction,
Columbia University, 61 Rt. 9W, Palisades NY 10964–8000, USA
<shardul@columbia.edu>

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[213]India and climate change policy: between diplomatic defensiveness and industrial transformation
Gupta J. 2001The paper focuses on the evolution of India's climate change policy over the last decade and the key driving factors that have led to changes in the nature of this policy. It argues that although India appears to be taking a defensive position in relation to climate change in the international arena there have been a large number of measures that have been initiated since 1990, within India. Collectively these measures are likely to lead to a decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from energy development, and possibly, even economic growth. Nevertheless, the government is likely to adopt a cautious position in international negotiations in order to avoid taking on legally binding quantitative commitments and because of their position that the onus lies on the developed countries to take action. Thus, although, de facto, India is taking a number of climate related no regret measures, it will be unwilling to take on de jure commitments in the short term.
(55 references)
Energy and Environment12(2 and 3):217–236
Institute for Environmental Studies,
Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
<joyeeta.gupta@ivm.vu.nl>

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[214]Future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Jordanian industries
Jaber JO. 2001Most of GHG emissions (85%) in Jordan emanate as a result of fossil fuel combustion. The industrial sector consumed 23.3% of the total national fuel consumption for heat and electric-power generation in 1999. The CO2 emissions from energy use in manufacturing processes represent 12.1% of the total national CO2 emissions. CO2 is also released as a result of the calcining of carbonates during the manufacture of cement and iron. In 1999, electricity, which is the most expensive form of energy, represented 45% of total fuel used for heat and power nationally. Heavy fuel oil and diesel oil represented 46% and 6%, respectively, of all the energy used by industry. Scenarios for future energy-demands and the emissions of gaseous pollutants, including GHG, have been predicted for the industrial sector. For these, the development of a baseline scenario relied on historical data concerning consumption, major industries' outputs, as well as upon pertinent published governmental policies and plans. Possible mitigation options that could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions are assessed, with the aim of achieving a 10% reduction by 2010, and compared with the baseline scenario. Many viable CO2 emission mitigation measures have been identified for the industrial sector, and some of these can be considered as attractive opportunities due to the low financial investments required and short pay back periods. These mitigation options have been selected on the basis of low GHG emissions rates and expert judgements as to their viability for wide-scale implementation and economic benefits. The predictions show that the use of more efficient lighting and motors, advanced energy systems and more effective boilers and furnaces will result in a significant reduction in the rates of GHG emissions at an initial cost (5 figures, 3 tables, 29 references)
Applied Energy71(1):15–30
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
The Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan
<jojaber@hu.edu.jo>

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[215]Japan and climate change: responses and explanations
Kawashima Y. 2001The paper assesses Japan's response to climate change negotiation in the last decade, and the forecast in the future. For Japan, hosting the COP-3 (Third Conference of the Parties) to the Convention was a significant milestone that changed Japan's response from reactive to proactive. Since then, Japan has been keen on taking a lead in the negotiation, but without much success. This failure is due to (1) Japan's high standard on energy efficiency per GDP and thus its difficulty to make further improvement, (2) Japan's foreign policy has considered US-Japan relation to be the most important, and (3) Japan's culture that cherishes harmony rather than becoming a leader. These features are likely to remain in the future as long as Japan's decision-making system itself remains the same.
(16 references)
Energy and Environment12(2 and 3):167–179
National Institute for Environmental Studies,
Japan, 16 2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305–0053 Japan
<ykawas@nies.go.jp>

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[216]Russian climate policies: more than hot air?
Moe A and Tangen K. 2001The paper reviews and explains Russia's positions in the climate negotiations and point to future challenges for Russia in the climate regime. Russia appears to become a large beneficiary of the trading system created by the Kyoto Protocol. The current allocation of quotas under the protocol will probably create substantial revenues for Russia, and it could also help attract foreign investment to its poorly maintained power and industrial sectors. Russia's positions in the international negotiations have changed as these potential benefits for the country have become apparent. However, although the Kyoto regime, if it enters into force, will mean new and additional revenues for Russia, there are several factors that might prevent Russia from reaping the full benefits created by the Kyoto Protocol.
(2 tables, 30 references)
Energy and Environment12(2 and 3):181–197
The Fridtjof Nansen Institute,
Box 326, 1326 Lysaker, Norway
<arild.moe@fni.no>

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[217]Early emission reduction programs: an application to CO2 policy
Parry IWH and Toman M. 2001In the wake of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which if implemented would oblige industrialized countries to meet targets for GHGs in 2008-12, there have been several proposals to reduce emissions during the interim period. A concern for early reduction also arises in other policy contexts. This paper uses a series of simple models and numerical illustrations to analyse voluntary early reduction credits for GHGs. The authors examine several issues that affect the economic performance of these policies, including asymmetric information, learning-by-doing, and fiscal impacts, and they compare their performance with that of an early cap-and-trade programme. They find that economic benefits of early credit programmes are likely to be limited, unless these credits can be banked to offset future emissions. Such banking was not allowed under the Kyoto Protocol. An early cap-and-trade programme can avoid many of the problems of early credits, provided it does not require excessive abatement.
(1 figure, 3 tables, 27 references)
The Energy Journal23(1):73–95
Resources for the Future,
1616 P Street, Washington, DC 20036, USA
<toman@rff.org>

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[218]Greenhouse gas reduction policy in the United States: identifying winners and losers in an expanded permit trading system
Rose A and Oladosu G. 2001The authors present an analysis of the economic impacts of marketable permits for GHG reduction across industries and income groups in the US. A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate permit-markets under various assumptions about permit allocations, industry coverage, revenue recycling, sequestration, and the inclusion of multiple GHGs. Results indicate that a permit price of as much as $128 per tone carbon would be needed to comply with the full US Kyoto commitment, and that this would lead to slightly more than 1 % reduction in GDP in the year 2010. Expansion of trading to include carbon sequestration and methane mitigation can significantly lower these impacts. However, all policy alternatives simulated are somewhat regressive in terms of income distribution, through to significantly different degrees depending on the policy design. The results do indicate the likelihood of significant cost reduction from CO2 sequestration and methane mitigation supplements to carbon mitigation. The energy sectors benefit most in absolute terms from the expansion of permit trading across GHGs, though some other sectors gain more in relative terms.
(4 tables, 21 references)
The Energy Journal23(1):1–18
Department of Energy,
Environmental, and Mineral Economics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
<azrl@psu.edu>

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[219]Canadian circumstances: the evolution of Canada's climate change policy
Samson PR. 2001A tracing and analysis of Canadian climate change policies and international negotiation positions over the past two decades reveals more than the complexity involved in the subject itself. The analysis suggests that 'national circumstances' have consistently been the primary driver of Canada's climate change policy. These circumstances include a decentralized national policy system that necessitates broad governmental and stakeholder participation; a strong economic reliance on natural and energy-intensive resources and exports; a national sense of belonging to the land; and a tradition of leadership and brokering in international affairs. Canada's policies have been, and will continue to be, primarily driven by these national circumstances as negotiations and implementation issues around the Kyoto Protocol further evolve.
(1 figure, 30 references)
Energy and Environment12(2 and 3):199–215
Policy Research Directorate,
Environment Canada, 4th Floor, 10 rue Wellington, TLC Hull, Quebec, Canada K1A0H3
<paul.samson@ec.gc.ca>

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[220]China's climate change positions: at a turning point?
Tangen K, Heggelund G, and Buen J. 2001The paper discusses major concerns and perceptions underlying Chinese positions in the international climate negotiations. China has asserted that concrete action on the part of developed countries is a precondition for any action related to developing countries. It has been sceptical of the Kyoto Mechanisms and has consistently refused to discuss quantified emission limits for developing countries. China's position regarding the clean development mechanism has, however, developed from scepticism to a more pragmatic focus on maximizing benefits. The dynamics of China's positioning can partly be explained by perceptions of costs, but also 'high politics', and tactical considerations. However, in light of the external and internal forces for change, it is worth asking how long it will be in China's interest to stick to its present position.
(1 table, 24 references)
Energy and Environment12(2 and 3):237–252
The Fridtjof Nansen Institute,
Box 326, 1326 Lysaker, Norway
<kristian.tangen@fni.no>

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[221]Endogenous technological change in climate change modelling
van der Zwaan BCC, Gerlagh R, Klaassen G, Schrattenholzer L. 2001The paper investigates the impact on optimal CO2 abatement and carbon tax level of introducing endogenous technological change in a macroeconomic model of climate change. The authors analyse technological change as a function of cumulative capacity, as incorporated recently in energy-systems models. The calculations confirm that including endogenous innovation implies earlier emission reduction to meet atmospheric carbon concentration constraints. However, the effect is stronger than suggested in the literature. Moreover, the development of non-fossil energy technologies constitutes the most important opportunity for emission reductions. Optimal carbon tax levels, reducing fossil energy use, are lower than usually advocated.
(6 figures, 1 table, 18 references)
Energy Economics24(1):1–19
IVM,
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1115, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
<bob.van.der.zwaan@ivm.vu.nl>

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[222]The ambiguous prospects for EU climate policy — a summary of options
Wettestad J. 2001The EU (European Union) is a key actor in international efforts to build an effective response to the challenge of global climate change. After the US, it is the second biggest emitter of GHGs. In the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the EU committed itself to an 8% reduction of a basket of GHGs. However, the EU climate policy so far, must be characterized as more of a failure than a success. Not least worrisome, EU officials have recently projected that EU greenhouse gas emissions will register an increase of 6%-8% by the end of this decade. In light of the Kyoto commitments and EU climate policy ambitions, what is more probable — comforting emission cuts or embarrassing increases? What are the main, determining factors? On the basis of a summary and review of important developments and achievements in EU climate policy, including the more recent, post-Kyoto developments, the central discussion of key future perspectives are carried out; distinguishing between national, EU-level and global 'lenses'. Domestic progress so far makes it tempting to adopt a pessimistic position. But complexity is very high and simple and sweeping assessments and answers should be treated with every bit of caution and suspicion.
(9 references)
Energy and Environment12(2 and 3):139–165
The Fridtjof Nansen Institute,
Box 326, 1326 Lysaker, Norway
<Jorgen.Wettestad@fni.no>

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