Empowering farmers through future price information: A case study of price forecasting of Brinjal in eastern Uttar Pradesh Kumar Pramod1*, Badal P.S.2, Paul R.K.3, Jha G.K.1, Venkatesh P.1, Kingsly I.T.4, Kamalvanshi V.2, Balasubramanian M.1, Anbukkani P.1 1Division of Agricultural Economics, ICAR-Indian Agriculture Research Institute, New Delhi-110012 2Department of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, BHU, Varanasi-221005 (Uttar Pradesh) 3ICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi-110012 4ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi-110012 *Corresponding author's email: pramod_iari@yahoo.co.in
Online published on 15 January, 2021. Abstract The study developed ARIMA forecasting model for brinjal prices for the markets of Eastern Uttar Pradesh. It was observed that the ARIMA (1,0,1) with non-zero mean was suitable for both Lucknow and Allahabad markets. ARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,0) (52), ARIMA (1,1,0) (1,1,0) (52), ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,0,0) (52), ARIMA (3,1,1) were suitable for Delhi, Varanasi, Kolkata, Gorakhpur, and Kanpur markets, respectively, based on lowest AIC values. The farmers and other supply chain actors of Eastern Uttar Pradesh could plan their production and marketing activities looking into the price scenario projected for major markets in the study. The highest price of brinjal was likely to prevail in the Kolkata market. To exploit distant markets, the farmers need to organize themselves into groups to exploit economies of scale. Top Keywords ARIMA, Empowering farmers, FPO, MAPE, MSE, Price forecasting of vegetable, RMSE. Top |