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Agro-Economist
Year : 2018, Volume : 5, Issue : 1
First page : ( 1) Last page : ( 6)
Print ISSN : 2350-0786. Online ISSN : 2394-8159.
Article DOI : 10.30954/2394-8159.01.2018.1

Forecasting maize production in India using ARIMA model

Sharma Pawan Kumar1,*, Dwivedi Sudhakar1, Ali Lyaqat2, Arora R.K.1

1Sher-E-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences & Technology of Jammu (J&K), India

2Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences & Technology of Kashmir (J&K), India

*Corresponding author: pawanvatsya@gmail.com

Online published on 17 October, 2018.

Abstract

Forecasting is an important tool to estimate the area, production and productivity of any crop in near future. There are several methods available for foresting the future figures and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is one of them. Maize is an important cereal of India, keeping in view its importance for rainfed areas of the country and diverse uses. The present study was conducted to forecast maize production for the year 2018 to 2022 based on the estimation of suitable ARIMA model. The analysis of ACF & PACF of differenced series revealed that ARIMA (2, 1, 0) was the most suitable model for forecasting based on the diagnostics, such as ACF, PACF, AIC, SBC etc. The selected ARIMA model predicted an increase of 13.76 percent increase in maize production in next five years w.e.f. 2017 to 2022.

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Keywords

Maize, forecasting, ARIMA model.

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