World Affairs: The Journal of International Issues
Year : 2017, Volume : 21, Issue : 1
First page : ( 10) Last page : ( 31)
Print ISSN : 0971-8052. Online ISSN : 0974-0937.

Psychology in political forecasting: Current and long-range dimensions

Nazaretyan Akop P

Online published on 4 May, 2017.

Abstract

Following an entrenched tradition, political analysts tend to exaggerate the role of economic and resource related factors, which in turn leads to errors in prognostication. This paper argues that historical determining factors are mostly of a mental nature. The state of and fluctuations in mass consciousness, the ambition and talent of authoritative leaders and other such “subjective” factors frequently determine social events more forcefully than “objective” factors. Economic and political spheres intersect during quiet phases to diverge widely at the approach of crisis. In addition, the specific weight of mental phenomena in system dependencies has been growing throughout human history, so that in the twenty-first century it is the evolution in worldviews, values and meanings that will ultimately determine the viability of our planetary civilisation.

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