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Trends in Biosciences
Year : 2014, Volume : 7, Issue : 4
First page : ( 302) Last page : ( 308)
Print ISSN : 0974-8431. Online ISSN : 0976-2485.

Flood Forecasting of West Flowing River in Sahydri Ranges Using Probalistic Model

Nandgude S. B.1, Ahire D. D.1, Mahale D. M.1, Shinde V. T.2,*

1Soil and Water Conservation Engineering Department, CAET, Dapoli-415 712, M.S., India

2Dept of Agricultural Engineering, College of Agriculture, NAU, Waghai-394 730, Gujarat (India)

*Email: vipulshinde123@gmail.com

Online published on 24 December, 2014.

Abstract

Konkan region of Maharashtra is flanked by Sahyadri ranges and Arebian sea. It bestowed with abundance of natural resources. Management of these resources is major challenge for planners. It is having many western flowing rivers which causes flash flood like situations due to intense rains. This study focusedon the application of ARIMA models for monthly stream flow forecasting of Savitri River in Raigad of Maharashtra Streamflow using Gen-Stat package. First according to the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC),Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and many other statistical parameters, suitable ARIMA models were selected for stream flow forecasting. Here eighteen Models were suitable for monthly streamflow forecasting. It is concluded that the selected models can be used for forecasting mean stream flow to Savitri River with reasonable accuracy But for the forecasting of the streamflow ARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,1) model is ‘good fit’. The AIC Value of this model is 779.764 and the BIC value is 789.762. The R-squared value is0.9459, and the RMSE value is 28.60, the standard error of this model is 0.00738. The all Parameter values are shows that this model is ‘good fit ‘for forecasting the streamflow of Savitri River.

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Keywords

ForecastingARIMAACFPACFtime series analysis.

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