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Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management
Year : 2017, Volume : 7, Issue : 8
First page : ( 324) Last page : ( 347)
Online ISSN : 2249-7307.
Article DOI : 10.5958/2249-7307.2017.00148.7

Factors affecting Exchange Rate and its Impact on Economy of India

Maurya Sheetal

Master of Philosophy Scholar, Department of Commerce, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi, India, sheetal.maurya17@gmail.com

Online published on 21 August, 2017.

Abstract

Present study investigates the impact of various economic variables on Rupee-USD exchange rate. The effect of exchange rate changes on GDP is also studied through a separate model. Results indicate that money supply, short run yield differentials, CAD, and inflation differential aren't statistically significant determinants of exchange rate. The R-square (goodness of fit) of the regression model comes out to 86.5%. Further, impact exchange rate on economic growth is examined using GDPmp as the parameter to judge the economic growth. Exchange rate increase does not cause a big increase in GDP this is because exchange rate has a positive impact on import and export both. The GDP will increase by a big amount only when the rupee depreciation will cause an increase in export and decrease in import. But since the import is found to have a positive correlation with exchange rate the net export value has decreased (but positive).

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Keywords

Exchange Rate, Inflation differential, Interest rate differential, broad money supply, Foreign Exchange Reserve, Current account deficit, Gross fiscal deficit, GDP, import, export.

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