Impact Assessment of Price Forecasts for Farmers Cultivating Coconut Processing to Copra in Karnataka Jadhav Vilas, Chinnappareddy B.V., Gracy C.P. Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Agricultural Sciences, GKVK, Bangalore-560 065, Karnataka Online published on 9 October, 2012. Abstract This study has quantified the impact of price forecast for copra in the Tiptur market, a major copra market of Karnataka. The price forecast was made three months in advance for the benefit of farmers. The analysis has revealed that prices were expected to hover around  5500 to 7200 per quintal during the next three months. The farmers were informed about the price forecast in a training programme conducted at KVK, Tiptur. During training period (of three months), the ruling copra prices were 4874 per quintal, and accordingly farmers were advised to wait for three months for a better price realization as indicated by the price forecast. The forecasted price for different months were: 4052–5544 (for December), 4893–6385 (For January) and 5527–7019 (for February), while the actual prices were 5666, 6300 and 6700, respectively. Thus, the difference between the forecasted price and the actual price was hardly 7 per cent. The copra farmers could realize a net benefit of 76536 per ha by taking advantage of price forecast. The impact of price forecast has been analyzed through a survey of respondents who utilized market intelligence and postponed their marketing decisions. Top Keywords Market intelligence, price forecasting, MSE, MAPE and Theils coefficient criteria. Top |