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Vegetos- An International Journal of Plant Research
Year : 2016, Volume : 29, Issue : 1
First page : ( 47) Last page : ( 54)
Print ISSN : 0970-4078. Online ISSN : 2229-4473.
Article DOI : 10.5958/2229-4473.2016.00010.0

The Potential Geographic Analysis and Prediction of Acertataricum subsp. Ginnala in China

Zhao Liang1, Chen Wei1, Yan Dong-ting1, Wang Yi-ling1,*

1School of Life Science, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen Shanxi, China

*Corresponding author: Yiling Wang, School of Life Science, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen Shanxi 041004, China, Tel: 86-29-85308114; E-mail: sxsdwyl2010@163.com

Online published on 23 August, 2016.

Abstract

As a versatile and highly ornamental tree species, Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala is widely distributed in the contemporary ages (1950–2000). Predicting its potential geographic distribution not only has great significance for its protection, but also provides theoretical support for forecasting other endangered species geographic distribution. In this study, MaxEnt model combined the GIS spatial analysis techniques were used to predict the potential geographic distribution of Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala from the 2030s to the 2070s. The reasons for the changes of geographic distribution were analyzed based on the future climate characteristics of China. The present results showed that Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala had different levels of distribution in China from 2030s to 2070s. The geographic distribution of Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala was mainly in the Northeast and North China. However, the mainly geographic distribution of Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala had changed because of the effects of temperature, precipitation and other climatic factors.

In special, the distribution was moved to eastern parts of Shandong, parts of Hubei, the bordering parts of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces.

Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala suitable areas in the country had shown a obviously reduction trend with the advance of years, And the future climate of China will be not conducive to the growth of

Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala. The information got in this study will be usefull for the Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala protection in China.

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Keywords

Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala, MaxEnt models, Predict potential distribution, GIS, Geographic distribution.

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