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Indian Journal of Economics and Development
Year : 2017, Volume : 13, Issue : 2
First page : ( 243) Last page : ( 256)
Print ISSN : 2277-5412. Online ISSN : 2322-0430.
Article DOI : 10.5958/2322-0430.2017.00175.5

Modelling and Forecasting of Palm Oil Production, Import, Export, Domestic Supply and Waste in Major Countries of the World

Mishra P.*, Vishwajith K.P., Padmanaban K., Sahu P.K.

Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia-741252 (West Bengal)

*Corresponding author's email: pradeepjnkvv@gmail.com

JELCodes: C43, C81, C51, C52, O13, Q56

Online published on 20 June, 2017.

Abstract

As the palm oil industry progresses, its many aspects, such as economic, environmental and social benefits, Thus, analysis of production, import-export, domestic supply and waste behaviour, modelling and prediction of palm oil play vital role in nutritional security. In this exercise an attempt has been made to analyse and forecast the production, import-export, domestic supply and waste behaviour of palm oil in major countries including whole of world. Widely used Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models methodology has been used successfully in modelling and forecasting purpose. From the forecasted value it is clear that among the all countries, Malaysia has to play a major role in palm oil production of world with its estimated share of 19767 thousand tons out of whole world production of 41603 thousand tons in 2020.

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Keywords

Domestic supply, forecasting, GARCH, production.

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