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Indian Journal of Agricultural Research
Year : 2015, Volume : 49, Issue : 2
First page : ( 160) Last page : ( 164)
Print ISSN : 0367-8245. Online ISSN : 0976-058X.
Article DOI : 10.5958/0976-058X.2015.00023.2

Probability analysis of return period of daily maximum rainfall in annual data set of Ludhiana, Punjab

Kumar Rajneesh*, Bhardwaj Anil

Department of Soil and Water Engineering, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141 001, India

*Corresponding author’ e-mail: rajneesh@pau.edu

Online published on 23 April, 2015.

Abstract

The daily rainfall data of 38 years were collected and one day maximum rainfall was sorted to estimate the probable one day maximum rainfall for different return periods by using probability distribution function. The mean value of annual one day maximum rainfall was found to be 105.9 mm with standard deviation and coefficient of variation in percent and skewness of 64, 0.604 and 2.2 respectively. Three probability distributions such as Log Normal, Gumbel and Log Pearson Type-III distribution had been used to determine the best fit probability distribution that describes the annual one day maximum rainfall by comparing with the Chi-square value. The results revealed that the Log Pearson Type-III distribution was the best fit probability distribution to describe annual one day maximum rainfall. Based on the best fit probability distribution, the maximum of 373.42 mm rainfall could be received with 25 years return period. It could be seen that as the confidence probability increased, the confidence interval also found increased. Further, an increase in return period, T caused the confidence band to spread on. The results from the study could be used to design soil and water conservation structures, irrigation and drainage systems and their managements.

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Keywords

Chi-square value, Confidence interval, Log pearson type-III distribution, Probability analysis, Rainfall.

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